[Math] 3 balls drawn from 1 urn – probability of getting exactly one color

combinatoricsprobability

An urn contains $5$ red, $6$ blue and $8$ green balls. $3$ balls are randomly
selected from the urn, find the probability of getting exactly one red
ball if the balls are drawn with replacement.

Source: doubt came from the similar question here.

In the same line, my answer follows

Total number of ways $=19^3=6859$

Favorable ways $= 5×14×14+14×5×14+14×14×5=2940$

Probability $=\dfrac{2940}{6859}$

Is my understanding right? please correct if I am wrong.

Best Answer

Your answer works. Another way to solve this is to note that because draws are done with replacement, the draws are independent and identically distributed. Thus the random variable $X=\text{number of red balls chosen in 3 draws}$ is a binomial random variable with $n=3$ and $p=\text{probability of red ball on a given draw}=\frac{5}{5+6+8}=\frac{5}{19}$. Thus

$$P(X=1)=\binom{3}{1}\cdot \left(\frac{5}{19}\right)^1\cdot \left(1-\frac{5}{19}\right)^2= \frac{2940}{6859}.$$