[Physics] Why does a collection of radioactive atoms show predictable behaviour while a single one is highly random

radioactivityrandomnessstatisticsstochastic-processes

Well, we know that it is impossible to say exactly when a radioactive atom will go on decay. It is a random process. My question is why then a collection of them decays in a predictable nature (exponential decay)? Does the randomness disappear when they get together? What is the cause of this drastic change of their behaviour?

Best Answer

Law of large numbers

This law simply states that if you repeat a trial many times, the result tends to be the expected value. For example if you roll a 6-sided die, you could get any of the six results 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. But the average of the six results is 3.5, and if you roll the 6-sided die a million times and take the average of all of them, you are extremely likely to get an average of about 3.5.

But you 1) might not get a number close to 3.5, in fact there's a non-zero chance you get an average of, for example, 2 or 1, and 2) still can't predict which result you will get when you roll a single die.

In the same way, you might not be able to predict when a single atom will decay (i.e. when you roll a single die), but you can make very good predictions when you have lots of atoms (i.e. equivalent to rolling the die millions of times).

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