[Physics] How much do sea levels rise due to thermal expansion

climate-scienceestimationoceanographytemperaturethermodynamics

I was reading an article by the Smithsonian Institute about the rising sea levels. In it, they mention how warmer water expands more, thus it helps to raise the average sea level. This makes perfect sense to me as I've always known that heat generally causes a substance to expand. But, I am very skeptical as to how much of a difference this makes, which is my question: how much expansion is caused by the rise in average global temperatures.

Now, I don't think the rise in average surface temperatures results in an equal raise in ocean temperatures, because most of the ocean, below 1,000 meters or so, hovers close to freezing year round. So, I dont think the whole of the ocean temperature rises in lock-step with the heating of the Earth's surface.

Specifically, I would like someone to calculate how much sea level rises due to a 1 or 2 degree warmer average temperature overall. As a secondary question, I would like to know how much surface temperatures affect ocean temperatures.

Best Answer

This is known as the steric component of sea level rise, and it is significant.

As a very rough indication of the size of the effect, if the top 1000 meters of the ocean warmed from 10 to 11 degrees C, sea level would rise by 18 cm. Calculations like this can be made using the equation of state of seawater, which is an empirical thing with lots of terms that gives you the density as a function of temperature, salinity, and pressure. You can read all about it in this article.

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