MATLAB: GARCH Prediction not possible

financeforecastinggarchvolatility

Hello everyone,
I have a very small problem that is bothering me in my GARCH estimation/prediction: The estimation part works perfectly, however I encounter a problem when I want to predict/forecast the conditional variance for the next period. Here is part of my code:
Mdl = garch(1,1);
opts = optimset('fmincon');
opts.Algorithm = 'interior-point';
EstMdl = estimate(Mdl,return,'options',opts);
Vf1 = forecast(Mdl,1,'Y0',return);
Now, in the last line of code, I run into the problem… The error message is as follows:
Conditional variance constant must be specified.
    Error in Code (line 774)
    Vf1 = forecast(Mdl,1,'Y0',return);
But I cannot understand why this problem appears… The returns consist of a vector (60,1) and everything should normally be perfectly fine..
Thank you guys very much already! I appreciate your help a lot!

Best Answer

You invoke the function forecast with Mdl, which is just a model specification and thus contains no coefficients. You have to use EstMdl instead. That's the estimated model with the coefficients.
Vf1 = forecast(EstMdl,1,'Y0',return);
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