Dear ! I have a data set with a column is rainfall and the next column is water level (1992-2006) as: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0By5tEg03EXCpd09rcG5hTWRzMHM/edit I would like to ask your about what are the Inputs values and Target Values? My friend told me that to Predict water level in the future is not need Rainfall data but only need Water level for recent years ago. I am confusing about that since Neural Network is needing an Input and Target values. I have a code for predict water level but rely on the input data has known, within 1992-2006 only. What I am need is using data from 1992-2006 to predict in the year 2014 example. I know you are very excellent about that, please fix again help me the code, thanks.
% Data_Inputs=xlsread('1.xls'); % Import file
%The training data sample are randmonized by using the function'randperm'
%Shuffling_Inputs=Data_Inputs(randperm(end),1:2); % integers (training sample)
Training_Set=Data_Inputs(1:end,1);%specific training set
Target_Set=Data_Inputs(1:end,2); %specific target set
Input=Training_Set'; %Convert to row
Target=Target_Set'; %Convert to row X = con2seq(Input); %Convert to cell
T = con2seq(Target); %Convert to cell %%2. Data preparation
N = 365; % Multi-step ahead prediction
% Input and target series are divided in two groups of data:
% 1st group: used to train the network
inputSeries = X(1:end-N); targetSeries = T(1:end-N); inputSeriesVal = X(end-N+1:end); targetSeriesVal = T(end-N+1:end); % Create a Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with External Input
delay = 2; inputDelays = 1:2; feedbackDelays = 1:2; hiddenLayerSize = 100; net = narxnet(inputDelays,feedbackDelays,hiddenLayerSize); % Prepare the Data for Training and Simulation
% The function PREPARETS prepares timeseries data for a particular network,
% shifting time by the minimum amount to fill input states and layer states.
% Using PREPARETS allows you to keep your original time series data unchanged, while
% easily customizing it for networks with differing numbers of delays, with
% open loop or closed loop feedback modes.
[inputs,inputStates,layerStates,targets] = preparets(net,inputSeries,{},targetSeries); % Setup Division of Data for Training, Validation, Testing
net.divideParam.trainRatio = 70/100; net.divideParam.valRatio = 15/100; net.divideParam.testRatio = 15/100; % Train the Network
[net,tr] = train(net,inputs,targets,inputStates,layerStates); % Test the Network
outputs = net(inputs,inputStates,layerStates); errors = gsubtract(targets,outputs); performance = perform(net,targets,outputs) % View the Network
view(net) % Plots
% Uncomment these lines to enable various plots.
%figure, plotperform(tr)
%figure, plottrainstate(tr)
%figure, plotregression(targets,outputs)
%figure, plotresponse(targets,outputs)
%figure, ploterrcorr(errors)
%figure, plotinerrcorr(inputs,errors)
% Closed Loop Network
% Use this network to do multi-step prediction.
% The function CLOSELOOP replaces the feedback input with a direct
% connection from the outout layer.
netc = closeloop(net); netc.name = [net.name ' - Closed Loop']; view(netc) [xc,xic,aic,tc] = preparets(netc,inputSeries,{},targetSeries); yc = netc(xc,xic,aic); closedLoopPerformance = perform(netc,tc,yc) % Early Prediction Network
% For some applications it helps to get the prediction a timestep early.
% The original network returns predicted y(t+1) at the same time it is given y(t+1).
% For some applications such as decision making, it would help to have predicted
% y(t+1) once y(t) is available, but before the actual y(t+1) occurs.
% The network can be made to return its output a timestep early by removing one delay
% so that its minimal tap delay is now 0 instead of 1. The new network returns the
% same outputs as the original network, but outputs are shifted left one timestep.
nets = removedelay(net); nets.name = [net.name ' - Predict One Step Ahead']; view(nets) [xs,xis,ais,ts] = preparets(nets,inputSeries,{},targetSeries); ys = nets(xs,xis,ais); earlyPredictPerformance = perform(nets,ts,ys) %%5. Multi-step ahead prediction
inputSeriesPred = [inputSeries(end-delay+1:end),inputSeriesVal]; targetSeriesPred = [targetSeries(end-delay+1:end), con2seq(nan(1,N))]; [Xs,Xi,Ai,Ts] = preparets(netc,inputSeriesPred,{},targetSeriesPred); yPred = netc(Xs,Xi,Ai); perf = perform(net,yPred,targetSeriesVal); figure; plot([cell2mat(targetSeries),nan(1,N); nan(1,length(targetSeries)),cell2mat(yPred); nan(1,length(targetSeries)),cell2mat(targetSeriesVal)]') legend('Original Targets','Network Predictions','Expected Outputs');
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