[Math] Nonstandard analysis in probability theory

foundationslo.logicmeasure-theorynonstandard-analysispr.probability

I am quite new at nonstandard analysis, and recently I became aware of its use in probability theory mainly through the following two books:

Although Nelson's book is several decades old, as far as I can see, its approach has not yet caught on. Also, I couldn't find a lot of papers published in the leading probability journals on that topic. I am quite intrigued by that phenomenon. My questions are the following

  • Why hasn't nonstandard analysis been widely adopted by probabilists?
  • Were there some success stories in some particular sub-fields of probability theory or statistics?
  • Does there exist some known fundamental objections in probability theory to the approach in there?

Best Answer

Non-standard analysis has been quite successful in settling existence questions in probability theory. Hyperfinite Loeb spaces allow for several constructions that cannot be done on standard probability spaces. In particular, NSA was quite useful for the construction of certain adapted processes. There is a paper by Hoover and Keisler, Adapted Probability Distributions, from 1984, in which the authors show that many of the properties that make hyperfinite Loeb spaces so useful where due to a property they called saturation: A probability space $(\Omega,\Sigma,\mu)$ is saturated if whenever $\nu$ is a Borel probability measure on $[0,1]^2$ and $f:\omega\to[0,1]$ a random variable with distribution equal to the marginal of $\nu$ on the first coordinate, then there exists a random variable $g:\Omega\to[0,1]$ such that the distribution of $(f,g)$ is $\nu$. An example of a saturated probability space that is not a hyperfinite Loeb space is the coin-flipping measure on $\{0,1\}^\kappa$ when $\kappa$ is uncountable. A relatively readable exposition of this approach can be found in the small book Model Theory of Stochastic Processes by Fajardo and Keisler. There are also several related papers and surveys on Keisler's homepage.

In a sense, we nowadays understand fairly well how certain powerful techniques of non-standard analysis work below the surface, so we can use a lot of the constructions freed of NSA. There isn't really anything where it is necessary to use NSA. Still, NSA is a rather powerful and useful tool. A good overview over what it can do for probability theory, mainly the theory of sochastic processes, is in the article by Osswald and Sun in Nonstandard Analysis for the Working Mathematician by Loeb.