[Math] Expectation of a random sum

pr.probabilitystochastic-processes

Let $X_1, X_2, X_3,\dots$ be an i.i.d. sequence of random variables with finite mean. Write $S_n=X_1+X_2+\dots+X_n$.

Let $N$ be a non-negative integer-valued random variable with finite mean. $N$ may not be independent of the sequence $(X_i)$.

Is it necessarily the case that $S_N$ has finite mean?

Of course, it's true if $N$ is independent of the sequence $(X_i)$. Then $E(S_N)=E(N)E(X_1)$. It's still true if $N$ is a stopping time for the sequence $(X_i)$.

It's also true if the $X_i$ have finite variance. Then for any $c>E(X_i)$,
the quantity $R_c=\sup(S_n-cn)$ has finite mean, and $E(S_N)\leq cE(N)+E(R_c)$.

Best Answer

Edit: I made it a bit clearer and simpler.

No. You start with noticing that there is no "linear" estimate for the mean of $S_N$ in terms of the mean of the sample $X$ under the assumption that the mean of $N$ is small. To this end just take $X$ be $0$ with probability $1-p$ and $A$ with probability $p$ so that $Ap$ is small. Now, once we have a sequence $X_i$ of independent copies of $X$, define $N$ to be $m$ if at least one of $X_1,\dots,X_m$ is not $0$ and $0$ otherwise. Then $ES_N= Apm$ and $EN\le m^2p$ and $EX=Ap$.

Now choose $A_j,p_j,m_j$ so that $\sum A_jp_j<+\infty$, $\sum A_jp_jm_j=+\infty$, $\sum m_j^2p_j<+\infty$. For instance, take $m_j=2^j$, $p_j=2^{-3j}$, $A_j=2^{2j}$.

Define the random samples $X^{(j)}$ and random interval lengths $N^{(j)}$ as above using $A_j,p_j,m_j$ in place of $A,p,m$. Put $X=\sum_j X^{(j)}$, $N=\sum_j N^{(j)}$. Then $EX$ and $EN$ are finite. Let $X_i$ be independent copies of $X$. We have $E\sum_1^N X_i\ge E\sum_j \sum_1^{N^{(j)}}X_i^{(j)}=\sum_j A_jp_jm_j=+\infty$.

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