[Math] Are there examples of conjectures supported by heuristic arguments that have been finally disproved

big-listconjecturesnt.number-theory

The idea for this comes from the twin prime conjecture, where the heuristic evidence seems just so overwhelming, especially in the light of Zhang's famous result from 2014 about Bounded gaps between primes and its subsequent improvements.

Are there examples of conjectures with some more or less "good" heuristic arguments, but where those arguments have finally not been "strong" enough?

I don't mean heuristic in the sense that some conjecture holds for small numbers, e.g. the fact that $li\ x-\pi (x) $ was thought to be always positive,
before Littlewood showed that not only it eventually changes sign, but does so infinitely often later on. So my question is different from the question about eventual counterexamples.

Likewise, the fact that the first $10^{15}$ or so zeros of the zeta function "obey" RH does tell us something, but not a whole lot compared with infinity. So again this is not what I mean by heuristic.

Best Answer

In computational complexity theory, most conjectures that two complexity classes are equal (or not equal, as the case may be) can be relativized to an oracle. Sometimes, as in the case of P = NP, one can obtain contradictory relativizations; i.e., there exists an oracle A such that PA = NPA and an oracle B such that PB ≠ NPB.

In the case of contradictory relativizations, it is tempting to hypothesize that if, for example, PB ≠ NPB for "most" oracles B, then P ≠ NP in the "real" (unrelativized) world. This heuristic was seriously proposed by Bennett and Gill as the "random oracle hypothesis," for a specific precise definition of "most oracles." However, the random oracle hypothesis was disproved by Kurtz. Later, another conjecture was proposed along similar lines: the "generic oracle hypothesis," with a different precise definition of "most oracles." But the generic oracle hypothesis was also disproved, by Foster.