Constructing Probability Measure from Sequence of Measures

fa.functional-analysismathematical-financepr.probability

Summary

I would like to pass from a sequence of probability measures whose "limit" satisfies a desired property to a new probability measure that satisfies this property.

Details

We work on a probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P)$. Let $C\subseteq L^{\infty}$ be convex, contain $-L^{\infty}_+$, and be closed in the weak*-topology on $L^{\infty}$.

Suppose there exists a sequence of probability measures $(Q^n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$, each of which is equivalent to $P$, such that for each $n$,
\begin{equation}
0\leq \sup_{X\in C} E_{Q^n}[X] \leq \frac{1}{n} \enspace (*).
\end{equation}

The goal is to construct a probability measure $Q$, that is equivalent to $P$, such that
\begin{equation*}
\sup_{X\in C} E_{Q}[X] =0.
\end{equation*}

Question

The intuitive idea is to take the limit as $n\rightarrow \infty$ in $(*)$. How can this be formalized? I.e. how can the probability measures $(Q^n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$ be used to construct a new probability measure $Q$ with the desired properties? Are there any papers with a similar construction?

Best Answer

$\newcommand\R{\mathbb R}$This is impossible to do in such generality.

E.g., suppose that $\Omega=\R$, $\mathcal{F}$ is the Borel $\sigma$-algebra over $\R$, $P$ is the standard normal distribution, $$C=\{g\in L^\infty\colon g\le f\},$$ $f$ is the standard normal pdf, and $Q^n$ is the normal distribution with mean $n$ and variance $1$.

Then $Q^n$ is equivalent to $P$ for each $n$ and \begin{equation} 0\le\sup_{X\in C} E_{Q^n}X= E_{Q^n}f =\int_\R f(t)f(t-n)\,dt =\frac1{\sqrt2}f\Big(\frac n{\sqrt2}\Big)\le\frac1n \end{equation} for each $n$. However, for any probability measure $Q$ (even if not equivalent to $P$), \begin{equation*} \sup_{X\in C} E_Q X=E_Q f>0, \end{equation*} since $f>0$.