Probability – Representation Formula for the Expected Value of a Stochastic Process at a Random Time

pr.probabilitystochastic-calculusstochastic-processes

Let $X$ be a continuous stochastic process, and $\tau$ an almost surely positive random variable, not necessarily a stopping time with respect to the natural filtration $\mathcal F_t$ of $X$.

We write $F_t := \mathbb P(\tau \leq t \, | \, \mathcal F_t)$ and suppose that $F$ is of bounded variation as a function of $t$, almost surely.

Suppose $f$ is a continuous function such that $\mathbb E[f(X_\tau)]$ is finite. Is it true that

$$\mathbb E[f(X_\tau)] = \mathbb E \left [\int_0^\infty f(X_t) \, dF_t \right ]?$$

Best Answer

I managed to work it out - the answer is yes.

By breaking $f$ into positive and negative parts, it suffices to prove the claim for positive $f$. By replacing $f$ with $\max(f, N)$ for $N > 0$ and applying the dominated convergence theorem as $N \to \infty$, we can further restrict to proving the claim for bounded, positive $f$.

Using the definition of the Riemann-Stiltjes integral, with $\mathcal P = \{a_i\}_{i = 0}^\infty $ denoting a generic partition of $\mathbb R_+$, we write

$$\mathbb E \left [\int_0^\infty f(X_t) \, dF_t \right ] = \mathbb E \left [\lim_{|\mathcal P| \to 0} \sum_{i = 0}^\infty f(X_{a_i}) [ \mathbb P(\tau \leq a_{i+1} | \mathcal F_{a_{i+1}}) - \mathbb P(\tau \leq a_i | F_{a_i})] \right ].$$

Since $f$ is bounded, we may swap the almost sure limit as $|\mathcal P| \to 0$ and the expectation, and then the sum and expectation and get

$$\lim_{|\mathcal P| \to 0} \sum_{i = 0}^\infty\mathbb E [ f(X_{a_i}) (\mathbb P(\tau \leq a_{i+1} | \mathcal F_{a_{i+1}}) - \mathbb P(\tau \leq a_i | \mathcal F_{a_i}))] $$

Now we perform an intermediate conditioning - conditioning the $i$'th summand on $\mathcal F_{a_i}$, we obtain

$$\lim_{|\mathcal P| \to 0} \sum_{i = 0}^\infty \mathbb E \left [\mathbb E \left [f(X_{a_i}) \mathbb 1_{\{a_i < \tau \leq a_{i+1}\}} \big | \mathcal F_{a_i} \right ] \right ]$$

$$=\lim_{|\mathcal P| \to 0} \sum_{i = 0}^\infty \mathbb E\left [ f(X_{a_i}) \mathbb 1_{\{a_i < \tau \leq a_{i+1}\}} \right ]$$

$$=\lim_{|\mathcal P| \to 0} \mathbb E\left [ \sum_{i = 0}^\infty f(X_{a_i}) \mathbb 1_{\{a_i < \tau \leq a_{i+1}\}} \right ]$$ so that

$$\mathbb E \left [\int_0^\infty f(X_t) \, dF_t \right ] - \mathbb E[f(X_\tau)]$$

$$ = \lim_{|\mathcal P| \to 0}\mathbb E\left [ \sum_{i = 0}^\infty f(X_{a_i}) \mathbb 1_{\{a_i < \tau \leq a_{i+1}\}} \right ] - \mathbb E[f(X_\tau)]$$

$$= \lim_{|\mathcal P| \to 0} \mathbb E\left [ \sum_{i = 0}^\infty (f(X_{a_i}) - f(X_\tau)) \mathbb 1_{\{a_i < \tau \leq a_{i+1}\}} \right ]$$

Now using continuity of $f$ and $X$, we deduce that the term inside the expectation converges to $0$ in probability, hence in $L^1$ by boundedness of $f$. This proves the claim.