Why Poisson probability P(X λ)

poisson distributionprobability distributions

I can intuitively grasp, why Poisson distribution is not symmetric. As I understand, because it is limited by zero, probabilities on the left side from its mean ($λ$) are being "thickened". But why sums of probabilities on both sides from the mean are not equal?

For example, with $λ=1.5$, Poisson probability of $P(X < λ)$ would be $0.55783$. But shouldn't there be equal probabilities of getting more and less than $1.5$ event's occurrences? And does this difference repeat with examples of data from the real world or it is just some kind of inaccuracy of Poisson distribution?

Best Answer

For a continuous distribution, it is the median (not the mean) that satisfies the equation:

$$\mathbb{P}(X < x_\text{median}) = \mathbb{P}(X > x_\text{median}).$$

This does not hold exactly for a discrete distribution, owing to the fact that there is positive probability at the point $x_\text{median}$, but still, it should hold approximately. Now, the Poisson distribution is a positively skewed distribution, and its mean is higher than its median. Thus, the result you are observing is quite unsurprising.