What’s the probability of rolling 1 on a die, 3 times in a row

probability

Given a D3 die (a die with 3 faces ("1","2","3")), what is the probability of throwing "1" three times in a row? One die, three times.

For one throw it's one possibility of three possibilities, 1/3 = 33%

So the goal is throwing "1", "1" and "1".

Is it 3.6% ( 33% * 33% * 33% ) or is it 33%? Since if you are successful of throwing "1" once, you "start a new" and therefore it's always 33%?

Best Answer

The probability of throwing a 1 at each roll is 1/3. So, even if the first two rolls were 1, the probability of the next role being 1 is still 1/3 - the fact that you already threw that twice makes no difference. (See the gambler's fallacy for more on that).

That being said, the probability of all of the rolls being 1/3 does change because there are a lot more possible outcomes to choose from. In fact, as previously indicated, $(\frac{1}{3})^3$ is correct here. Think about it this way: for the first roll, there are 3 possible results (1, 2, or 3). For two rolls, there are nine possibilities because for each possible first roll, there are 3 possible first rolls and three possible second rolls, so there are 9 possible results: (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3). For three dice, there are 27 possible solutions: e.g. (1, 1, 1), (1, 1, 2), (1, 1, 3), (1, 2, 1), etc. The probability of rolling 3 consecutive 3s is therefore $\frac{1}{27} = \frac{1}{3}^3$.

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