Variance of $\hat \mu$ from a Gaussian distribution

calculusexpected valuereal-analysisstatistics

Assume $X \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)$ generates an independent sample $X_1, \ldots, X_n$, where $\sigma$ is known. The exercise is to find an unbiased estimator for $\mu^2$ and its variance.

In the textbook, the solutions are listed as $$ \hat \mu^2 = \bar X^2 + \sigma^2/n$$ $$Var(\hat \mu^2) = \mathbb{E}_{\mu}((\bar X – \mu)^2 + 2\mu(\bar X – \mu) – \sigma^2/n)^2 = 4\mu^2 \sigma^2/n + 2\sigma^4/n^2$$

Why is this so?

From what I'm getting, since $T(X)=\sum X_i$ is a sufficient statistic, and $T \sim \mathcal{N}(n\mu, n\sigma^2)$,
$$ \mathbb{E}(T^2) = \mathbb{E}(\sum_{j=1}^{n}X_i)^2=n \mathbb{E}(X_i^2)=n(\sigma^2 + \mu^2)$$
from where it follows that

$$ \mathbb{E}(T^2 – n \sigma^2) = n\mu^2$$

therefore $\hat \mu^2= T^2/n – \sigma^2 \left(=(n \bar X)^2/n – \sigma^2 =n \bar X^2 – \sigma^2\right)$ would seem like an unbiased estimator. However, this is off from the solution by a factor of $n$.

Further, assuming my approach was wrong, I can't see how are they getting the variance, since
$$ \begin{align}\mathbb{E}_{\mu}((\bar X – \mu)^2 + 2\mu(\bar X – \mu) – \sigma^2/n)^2 &= \mathbb{E}(\bar X^2-2\mu \bar X+ \mu^2 + 2\mu \bar X- 2\mu^2 – \sigma^2/n)^2 \\
&= \mathbb{E}(\bar X^2-\mu^2 – \sigma^2/n)^2 \\
\end{align}$$

And isn't $\mathbb{E}\bar X^2 = \mathbb{E}(\frac{1}{n}\sum X_i)^2 = \frac{1}{n^2}\sum(\mathbb{E}X_i^2) = \frac{1}{n}(\sigma^2 + \mu^2)$?

It doesn't seem to add up, or I am missing something. A fresh pair of eyes would help!

Best Answer

You forgot to handle the cross terms. $$E(T^2) = \sum_i \sum_j E[X_i X_j] = n \sum_i E[X_1^2] + n(n-1) E[X_1 X_2] = n (\sigma^2 + \mu^2) + n(n-1) \mu^2 = n \sigma^2 + n^2 \mu^2$$ so $$E\left[\frac{1}{n^2}T^2 - \frac{\sigma^2}{n}\right] = \mu^2.$$ I think a similar correction when computing $E[\bar{X}^2]$ at the end of your post might resolve the variance computation too.

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