Unbiased Estimator of $\sigma^4$

parameter estimationstatistics

$\{X_i\}_1^n$ is random sample from $N(\mu, \sigma^2)$ with unknown parameters. Find an unbiased estimator of $\sigma^4$.

My first thought was to estimate kurtosis (as it has $\sigma^4$ term) and the kurtosis of the normal distribution is known to be 3. For example, something like:
$$T = \frac{\sum_1^n (X_i – \bar{X})^4}{3n}$$

But I am unsure about the validity of above statistic and cannot determine whether it is biased or unbiased.

Also how do you go about finding an unbiased estimator? Perhaps you can use maximum likelihood or the method of moments to find an estimator and then check its unbiasedness.

What if they all are biased?

Edit:

I changed my statistic to be dependent on n, as per the comment below.

Edit 2:

One of my classmates used the following approach:
$$\mathbb E\left[s^4\right] = \mathbb V\left[s^2\right] + \mathbb E\left[s^2\right]^2 = \frac{2\sigma^4}{n-1} + \sigma^4 $$

To finally get:
$$\mathbb E\left[\frac{(n-1)s^4}{n+1}\right] = \sigma^4$$
Here $s^2$ is $\frac{1}{n-1}\sum_{i=1}^n \left(X_i – \bar{X}\right)^2$

Is this also correct? If so what does it say about an umvue statistic.

Best Answer

Let us start by computing the $\mathbb E\left[\left(X_i - \overline X\right)^4\right]$. To be able to do that, we need to find the distribution of $X_i - \overline X$. This is not complicated since $X_i$ are normal distributed,

$$X_i - \overline X \sim \mathcal N\left(0, \left(1 - \frac1n\right)\sigma^2\right)$$

So $$\mathbb E\left[\left(X_i - \overline X\right)^4\right] = \left(1-\frac{1}{n}\right)^2\sigma^4 \mathbb E\left[Z^4\right] = 3\left(1-\frac{1}{n}\right)^2\sigma^4$$

Now replace the true expectation by it empirical equivalent and $\sigma^4$ by its estimator (this is called Moment Method and it leads to an unbiased estimator)

$$\frac1n \sum_{i=1}^n \left(X_i - \overline X\right)^4 = 3\frac{(n-1)^2}{n^2} \widehat{\sigma^4}$$

So if you want to have an unbiased estimator, you can take:

$$\widehat{\sigma^4} = \frac{n}{3\left(n-1\right)^2} \sum_{i=1}^n \left(X_i - \overline X\right)^4$$


Using $S^2$: as mentioned in the question $$\mathbb E\left[\frac{n-1}{n+1}S^4 \right] = \sigma^4$$ which leads to the following unbiased estimator:

$$\widehat{\sigma^4} = \frac{1}{n^2-1} \left(\sum_{i=1}^n \left(X_i - \overline X\right)^2\right)^2$$