Throwing a die three times

combinatoricsdiceprobability

If I throw one die three times then each time the probability of getting a $6$ is $p={1 \over 6}$.

EDIT

If I want to know the probability of getting at least one $6$, then my intuition (which is clearly wrong) is that I observe three experiments and each time I have a chance of ${1 \over 6}$. So I sum up all ${1 \over 6}$ which yields $3 \cdot {1 \over 6}$.

However, it should be $p= 1-\left({5\over 6}\right)^3$.

Why is $3 \cdot {1 \over 6}$ wrong?

Best Answer

Since you only ask why your intuition is wrong, that is the question I will answer.

When you add When you add $\frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{6} $ you are double counting some of the possibilities. For example, the result $(6,6,6)$ was counted three times. And any outcome that has more than one $6$ was counted more than one time.

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