Three dice are rolled. the probability of obtaining at least one 6

combinatoricsprobability

The approach in the text is using the "not" rule, where we first find the probability of getting zero number of 6's. For one dice this probability is $\frac{5}{6}$ and for three die it becomes $\frac{5}{6}^3$. Hence using the not rule the probability of getting at least one 6 is $1-\frac{125}{216} = \frac{91}{216}$.
But I have a different approach which leads to a different answer –
Let's say we have one dice then we have just 1 way to get atleast one 6. For two die, it becomes 6 ways and for three die the answer comes to be 36 ways. Hence the probability turns out to be $\frac{36}{216}$.
What is wrong with my approach?

Best Answer

"Let's say we have one die then we have just 1 way to get at least one 6": yes, $1$ out of $6$ outcomes.

"For two dice, it becomes 6 ways". Nope, you have $1$ way to get a double 6, and $10$ ways to get only one 6 (first die: 6, second die: 1-5; first die= 1-5, second die: 6). $1+10=11$ out of $36$ outcomes.

"for three dice the answer comes to be 36 ways". Nope, you have $1$ way to get three 6s, $15$ ways to get two 6s (three times five ways: 6, 6, 1-5; 6, 1-5, 6; 1-5, 6, 6), $75$ ways to get only one 6 (three times twentyfive ways: 6, 1-5, 1-5; 1-5, 6, 1-5; 1-5, 1-5, 6). $1+15+75=91$ out of $216$ outcomes.

Hence even not using the (easier) not rule the probability of getting at least one 6 is $\frac{91}{216}$ :)