The U.S. Senate consists of $100$ senators, with $2$ from each of the $50$ states

probability

The U.S. Senate consists of $100$ senators, with $2$ from each of the $50$ states. There are $50$ Democrats in the Senate. A committee of size $10$ is formed, by picking a random set of senators such that all sets of size $10$ are equally likely.

a) Find the expected number of Democrats on the committee.

b) Find the expected number of states represented on the committee (by at least one senator).

c) Find the expected number of states such that both of the state’s senators are on the committee.

  • For part a), I defined $D$ as a random variable for democrats, got the Hypergeometric Distribution to be $D$ ~ $(100, c, d),$ and the expectation to be $E(D) = c(\frac{d}{100}) = \frac{cd}{100}$. Then I plugged in $10$ for $c$ and $50$ for $d$ and got $E(D) = 5.$
  • For part b), I defined $I_j$ as the random variable for the j-th state represented/ not represented in the committee, got $P(I_j = 1) = 1 – P(I_j = 0) = 1 – \frac{\binom{98}{c}}{\binom{100}{c}} = 1 – \frac{(100 – c)(99 – c)}{(100)(99)}$, and finally $E(\sum_{j} I_j) = \sum_{j}E(I_j) = \sum_{j}P(I_j = 1) = 50(1 – \frac{(100 – c)(99 – c)}{(100)(99)})$.

Then I plugged in $10$ for $c$ and got $P(I_j = 1) = 1 – \frac{8010}{9900}$ = $\frac{21}{110}$ and $E(\sum_{j} I_j) = 50(1 – \frac{(100 – 10)(99 – 10)}{(100)(99)})$ = $50(\frac{21}{110})$ = $\frac{105}{11} $

  • For part c), I defined $K_j$ as the random variable for both being from/ not from j-th state in the committee, got $P(K_j = 1) = \frac{\binom{98}{c}}{\binom{100}{c}} = \frac{(100 – c)(99 – c)}{(100)(99)}$ and finally $E(\sum_{j} K_j) = \sum_{j}E(K_j) = \sum_{j}P(K_j = 1) = 50( \frac{(100 – c)(99 – c)}{(100)(99)})$

Then I plugged in $10$ for $c$ and got $P(K_j = 1) = \frac{8010}{9900}$ = $\frac{89}{110}$ and $E(\sum_{j} K_j) = 50(\frac{(100 – 10)(99 – 10)}{(100)(99)})$ = $50(\frac{89}{110})$ = $\frac{445}{11} $.

  • However, I am not sure if my answers are correct. Any help would be much appreciated!

Best Answer

A) and B) looks fine, for C) I think the right definition for $K_j$ would be let $K_j$ be the indicator variable denoting if there is representation for state $j$ in the committee from both the senators.

Then $P[K_j = 1 ]$ = $\frac{{2 \choose {2}}*{{98}\choose{8}}}{{100}\choose{10}}$

Therefore the expected number of such states in the committee is $50*P[K_j = 1] = \frac{45}{99}$