Statistical probability of being sick

normal distributionprobabilitystatistics

You have a machine that has a $0.9$ probability to give the correct diagnosis of a flu disease (similar for both the negative and positive diagnoses).
The probability of having the disease is $0.01$ for the general public. You know that a person sampled from the population was diagnosed as positive for the flu by this medical device.
Given this observation, what is the probability of that person having the disease?

I have no idea how to solve this, I think the population follows a normal distribution, but I can't think of anything. I would like you to explain to me what I should do. Thank you!

Best Answer

Hint:

Suppose you had $1000$ people.

  • How many would you expect to have the disease?
    • How many of those would you expect to test positive?
  • How many would you expect to not have the disease?
    • How many of those would you expect to test positive?
  • So how many in total would you expect to test positive?
    • What proportion of those testing positive would you expect to have the disease?
Related Question