Semi markov processes sojourn time

markov chainsmarkov-processprobability

I am having hard time to clearly understand a point related to Semi Markov Processes, based on this link.

From my understanding, in a Semi Markov Process, you have a probability $p_{ij}$ to transition from a state $i$ to a state $j$, which depends on the amount of time $\tau_i$ you have spent on state $i$.

What I really don't get is the second paragraph of the previous link, talking about the distribution of the jump times. What is $p_{ij}F_{ij}(x)$? Is $x$ the amount of time you spend on one state? Then what is $\tau$?

I have read some other papers, and the general understanding I have from SMP is that you have a fixed, discrete transition probability between two states. This transition is modulated by the amount of time spent on the node. The more time you spend, the more likely you will be to transition. But I would like to understand the theory. When I read what I linked, it doesn't seem to be what I think.

Thanks a lot for your help.

Best Answer

Yes, $x$ is time spend on a state, and $\tau_n$ is the time of the $n$-th jump. To clarify this, define $T_n=\tau_n-\tau_{n-1}$ for $n\geq 1$ and $\tau_0=0$. In this sense, $T_n$ is the time between jumps and $\tau_n=T_1+\cdots +T_n$.

To understand $F_{ij}(x)$ use the above definition of $T_n$ and define $X_n=X(\tau_n)$. Manipulating the probability presented in the reference you get that \begin{align} \mathbb{P}(T_n\leq x,X_n=j|X_{n-1}=i)&=\dfrac{\mathbb{P}(T_n\leq x,X_n=j,X_{n-1}=i)}{\mathbb{P}(X_{n-1}=i)}\\ &=\dfrac{\mathbb{P}(T_n\leq x|X_n=j,X_{n-1}=i)\mathbb{P}(X_n=j,X_{n-1}=i)}{\mathbb{P}(X_{n-1}=i)}\\ &=\mathbb{P}(T_n\leq x|X_n=j,X_{n-1}=i)\mathbb{P}(X_n=j|X_{n-1}=i)\\ &=\mathbb{P}(T_n\leq x|X_n=j,X_{n-1}=i)p_{ij}. \end{align} So $F_{ij}(x):=\mathbb{P}(T_n\leq x|X_n=j,X_{n-1}=i)$. This is similar to the distribution of the observed process in a two-step hidden markov model where the regime is $\{X_n\}$.

Related Question