Selecting $3$ red balls out of $3$ red and $2$ blue balls in $4$ trails with replacement

probability

Suppose you have $3$ red balls and $2$ blue balls and asked what is the probability that you get $3$ red balls in $4$ trials with replacement.

They way I think is we need to find Combinations of picking balls and divide it by total combinations

Picking 1 st ball $= 3/5$,

Second Ball $= 3/5$,

Third Ball $= 3/5$

4th Ball
For red $= 3/5$,
For blue $= 2/5$.

Hence the combined probability $= 3/5 \cdot 3/5 \cdot3/5 \cdot(3/5 + 2/5)
= 3/5 \cdot 3/5 \cdot 3/5$
.

Is this correct?

Best Answer

What you calculated is the probability that the first $3$ balls drawn are red, so your answer is wrong.


It is with replacement so there are $4$ independent experiments that all have the same probability to succeed (i.e. the draw results in a red ball). The probability on success is $\frac35$.

Then you are dealing with binomial distribution with parameters $n=4$ and $p=\frac35$.

To be found is: $$P(X=3)=\binom43\left(\frac35\right)^3\left(\frac25\right)^1$$

Observe that $\binom43=4$ and is actually the number of possibilities shown in the answer of Robert.