Question about finding joint PMF

probabilityprobability distributions

A particle starts at $(0,0)$ and moves in one-unit independent steps with equal probabilities of $\frac{1}{4}$ in each of the four directions: north,south,east and west. Let S equal to the east-west position and T the north-south position after three steps.

Question:Define the joint PMF of S and T..

I have hard time understanding the problem, say the particle moves in the west three times, then the probability is $\frac{1}{64}$. I just have hard time categorizing kinds of situations and need help on that. Appreciate it!

Best Answer

Let $(S_0,T_0)=0$ and define $\{(S_n,T_n):n=0,1,2,\ldots\}$ by the transition probabilities $$ \mathbb P((S_{n+1},T_{n+1}) = (i',j') \mid (S_n,T_n) = (i,j) = \begin{cases} \frac14,& |i'-i| + |j'-j| = 1\\ 0,& \text{otherwise}. \end{cases} $$ By symmetry, $$ \mathbb P((S_1,T_1) = (1,0)) = \mathbb P((S_1,T_1) = (0,1)) = \mathbb P((S_1,T_1) = (-1,0)) = \mathbb P((S_1,T_1) = (0,-1)) = \frac14. $$ For the distribution of $(S_2,T_2)$, there are three cases. First, the case where two steps are made in the same direction: $$ \mathbb P((S_2,T_2) = (2,0)) = \mathbb P((S_2,T_2) = (0,2)) = \mathbb P((S_2,T_2) = (-2,0)) = \mathbb P((S_2,T_2) = (0,-2)). $$ These probabilities are given by \begin{align} \mathbb P((S_2,T_2) = (2,0)) &= \mathbb P((S_2,T_2) = (2,0)\mid (S_1,T_1)=(1,0))\mathbb P((S_1,T_1)=(1,0))\\ &= \left(\frac14\right)^2\\ &= \frac1{16}. \end{align} Second, the case where one horizontal step is made and one vertical step is made: $$ \mathbb P((S_2,T_2) = (1,1)) = P((S_2,T_2) = (-1,1)) = P((S_2,T_2) = (1,-1)) = P((S_2,T_2) = (-1,-1)). $$ Since the steps could have been made in two different orders, these probabilities are $2\cdot\frac1{16}=\frac18$.

Third, the case where $(S_2,T_2)=(0,0)$. There are four ways this can happen, so the probability is $4\cdot\frac1{16}=\frac14$.

The distribution of $(S_3,T_3)$ may be found by a similar analysis - the probabilities will be multiples of $\frac1{4^3}=\frac1{64}$ depending on how many paths there are that end at a given point.

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