Probability – two balls in the box: one we don’t know its color and the other is red. What’s the probability it’s white

probability

Bob has a black box (you can't see what's inside the box). A long time
ago Bob put one ball into the box but he doesn't remember what color
the ball was. With equal probability it can be a white ball or a red
ball. A. Bob takes a red ball and puts it in the same box. Now
there are two balls in the box: one ball Red that Bob just put in and
a ball that was in the box earlier (Bob doesn't remember its color).
Now Bob draws Randomly one ball out of the box and it turned out to
be a red ball. Calculate the probability that the ball that has been
in the box for a long time is a white ball given the action taken by
Bob.

My attempt: There are two options, since we already know of them is red, $A_1= \{\text{White, Red}\}$ or $A_2= \{\text{Red, Red}\}$, so
$\Pr[A_1 \cup A_2] = 1/2$?

Best Answer

You received two nice answers already, but let me add one that might be experienced as more intuitive.

If the ball has white color then the probability on drawing a red ball is $\frac12$.

If the ball has red color then the probability on drawing a red ball is $1$.

So comparing both situations you could say that the odds are $\frac12:1$.

We can also express that as $\frac13:\frac23$.

Here $\frac13+\frac23=1$ so that the two numbers can be interpreted as probabilities, and we can conclude that the first situation corresponds with probability $\frac13$.