Probability that the first and fourth balls are red when drawing 4 balls.

combinatoricsprobability

Sorry, couldn't fit the entire question into the title.

Question:

A box contains 15 identical balls except that 10 are red and 5 are
black. Four balls are drawn successively and without replacement.
Calculate the probability that the first and fourth balls are red.

My attempt:

Probability =
$$1*2C0 + 1*2C1 + 1*2C2 \over 4C0 + 4C1 + 4C2 + 4C3 + 4C4 $$

My idea is that no. of ways to make first and fourth balls = 1, and we have 2 balls left which
can either have red or black colors.

However, my textbook answer was:

$$10P2*13P2\over15P4$$

Which I don't get at all; why would you use permutations when you have identical balls? Wouldn't that mess things up?

Thanks in advance.

Best Answer

Note that the probability of first ball and fourth ball being red is same as probability of first and second ball being red.

So desired probability $ = \displaystyle \frac{10}{15} \cdot \frac{9}{14} = \frac{3}{7}$