Two absent-minded roommates, mathematicians, forget their umbrellas in some way or another. $A$ always takes his umbrella when he goes out, while $B$ forgets to take his umbrella with probability $1/2$. Each of them forgets his umbrella at a shop with probability $1/4$. After visiting three shops, they return home. Find the probability that they have only one umbrella.
My Attempt
$A_i/\bar{A}_i$ : $A$ remembers or forgets umbrella at shop $i$
$B_i/\bar{B}_i$ : $B$ remembers or forgets umbrella at shop $i$
$B_o/\bar{B}_o$ : $B$ remembers or forgets umbrella at shop home
$A_i,,B_i=3/4;\bar{A}_i,\bar{B}_i=1/4$ and $B_o,\bar{B}_o=1/2$
$$
\text{Req. Prob.}=A_1A_2A_3\bar{B}_o+A_1A_2A_3B_o\bar{B}_1+A_1A_2A_3B_oB_1\bar{B}_2+A_1A_2A_3B_oB_1B_2\bar{B}_3+\bar{A}_1B_oB_1B_2B_3+A_1\bar{A}_2B_oB_1B_2B_3+A_1A_2\bar{A}_3B_oB_1B_2B_3\\
=\Big(\frac{3}{4}\Big)^3\Big(\frac{1}{2}\Big)+\Big(\frac{3}{4}\Big)^3\Big(\frac{1}{2}\Big)\Big(\frac{1}{4}\Big)+\Big(\frac{3}{4}\Big)^3\Big(\frac{1}{2}\Big)\Big(\frac{3}{4}\Big)\Big(\frac{1}{4}\Big)+\Big(\frac{3}{4}\Big)^3\Big(\frac{1}{2}\Big)\Big(\frac{3}{4}\Big)^2\Big(\frac{1}{4}\Big)+\Big(\frac{1}{4}\Big)\Big(\frac{1}{2}\Big)\Big(\frac{3}{4}\Big)^3\\
+\Big(\frac{3}{4}\Big)\Big(\frac{1}{4}\Big)\Big(\frac{1}{2}\Big)\Big(\frac{3}{4}\Big)^3+\Big(\frac{3}{4}\Big)^2\Big(\frac{1}{4}\Big)\Big(\frac{1}{2}\Big)\Big(\frac{3}{4}\Big)^3\\
=\frac{27}{128}+\frac{27}{128*4}+\frac{81}{128*16}+\frac{243}{128*64}+\frac{27}{128*4}+\frac{81}{128*16}+\frac{243}{128*64}\\
=\frac{3726}{128*64}=\frac{3726}{8192}
$$
But my reference gives the solution $\frac{7278}{8192}$, so what am I missing in my attempt ?
Note: Please check $b$ part of link for a similar attempt to solve the problem to obtain the solution as in y reference.
Best Answer
You want the probability that only one of the two remembers their umbrella at every point.
At the end of the trip, $A$ will have an umbrella if it is remembered at each of the three stores. This has a probability of $(3/4)^3$
At the end of the trip, $B$ will have an umbrella if it is remembered at home and each of the three stores. This has a probability of $(1/2)(3/4)^3$
So the probability that exactly one has an umbrella at the end is, indeed:$$\begin{align}&\dfrac {3^3}{4^3}\left(1-\dfrac{3^3}{2\cdot4^3}\right)+\left(1-\dfrac{3^3}{4^3}\right)\dfrac{3^3}{2\cdot4^3}\\[1ex]=&\dfrac{3^4\left(2^5-3^2\right)}{2^{12}}\\[1ex]=&\dfrac{1863}{4096}\\[1ex]=&\dfrac{3726}{8192}\end{align}$$
The probability that at most one has an umbrella by the end is:$$1-\dfrac{3^3}{2\cdot 4^3}\cdot\dfrac{3^3}{4^3}=\dfrac{7278}{8192}$$ The difference being: the probability that they both forget the umbrella.