Probability of throwing a die

probability

Question: How many times should we throw a die if we want that the sum of points obtained
was at least 4500 with probability $p \geq 0; 975?$
(use the central limit theorem).

I know that the probability of getting a given value for the total on the dice may be calculated by taking the total number of ways that value can be produced and dividing it by the total number of distinguishable outcomes. So the probability of a $7$ on the dice is $\frac{1}{6}$ because it can be produced in $6$ ways out of a total of $36$ possible outcomes.

Could some one help me on how to solve this problem? Thanks!

Best Answer

Outline:

For a single roll of the die the mean number of points is $\mu = 3.5$ and the variance of the number of points is $\sigma^2 = 2.916667.$ These values can be found using the definitions of the mean and variance of a discrete random variable.

Let $T_n$ be the total points on $n$ independent rolls of the die. Then $E(T_n) = n\mu,$ $Var(T_n) = n\sigma^2,$ and $SD(T_n) = \sigma\sqrt{n}.$

According to the CLT, You want $$P(T_n \ge 4500) = P\left(\frac{T_n -n\mu}{\sigma\sqrt{n}}\ge\frac{4500 -n\mu}{\sigma\sqrt{n}}\right)\\ \approx P\left(Z\ge\frac{4500 -n\mu}{\sigma\sqrt{n}} = 1.96 \right)= 0.975.$$

In the next-to-last member of the above equation, use known values of $\mu$ and $\sigma,$ solve for $n$ and round up to the next higher integer.

Note: On account of the following simulation in R, I'm guessing $n$ is not far from $1320.$

d = replicate(10^6, sum(sample(1:6, 1320, rep=T)))
mean(d >= 4500)
[1] 0.973992
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