Probability of some dice rolls

diceprobabilityprobability theory

Question

A fair six-sided die is rolled $12$ times. Find the probability that each of the six possible outcomes ($1$, $2$, $3$, $4$, $5$ and $6$) come up at least once.

My working

Let $X_n$ be the random variable denoting the number of times $n$ appears, out of $12$ rolls. For example, $X_1$ will be the random variable denoting the number of times $1$ appears, out of $12$ rolls.

Then, $$X_n \sim B(12, \frac 1 6)$$ and the required probability is

\begin{align}
P(X_1 \geq 1)P(X_2 \geq 1)P(X_3 \geq 1)P(X_4 \geq 1)P(X_5 \geq 1)P(X_6 \geq 1) & = [P(X \geq 1)]^6
\\[5 mm] & =
[1 – P(X = 0)]^6
\\[5 mm] & =
\left[1 – \left(\frac 5 6\right)^{12}\right]^6
\\[5 mm] & \approx
0.490
\end{align}

Answer

The solution by my professor gives the required probability as $$1 –
\left[\binom 6 1 \left(\frac 5 6\right)^{12} – \binom 6 2 \left(\frac 4 6\right)^{12} + \binom 6 3 \left(\frac 3 6\right)^{12} – \binom 6 4 \left(\frac 2 6\right)^{12} + \binom 6 5 \left(\frac 1 6\right)^{12}\right] \approx 0.438.$$


The solution does come with an explanation, but I am very confused by it, so I am hoping to find more intuitive suggestions on why my working is wrong as well as how to go about approaching the problem.

Best Answer

You are assuming that the random variables $X_i$'s are independent but this is not the case.

Let $A_i$ be the event that $i$ occur, we want to compute $$P\left(\bigcap_{i=1}^6 A_i\right)=1-P\left( \bigcup_{i=1}^6 A_i^c\right)$$

We then compute $P\left( \bigcup_{i=1}^6 A_i^c\right)$ by inclusion-exclusion principle.

Notice that we have

$$P\left(\bigcap_{i=1}^m A_i^c\right)=\left( \frac{6-m}{6}\right)^{12}$$

By symmetry:

$$P\left( \bigcup_{i=1}^6 A_i^c\right)=\sum_{m=1}^6 (-1)^{m+1}\binom{6}{m}P\left(\bigcap_{i=1}^m A_i^c\right)$$

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