Probability of receiving a job offer on 3rd application

probability

Suppose that when you submit a job application you have a probability of $0.1$ to receive an interview, and a job interview results in a job offer with probability $0.2$. Also assume you only submit one application at a time (i.e. you wait to know if you have been rejected from the job, either at the application stage or the interview stage before applying to another job).

What is the probability of getting your first job offer after submitting at most 3 job applications?


Attempt: Either you get a job offer after your first, second, or third application.

  • The probability of getting an offer after your 1st application is $(0.1)(0.2)=0.02$.
  • The probability of getting an offer after your 2nd application is $(1-0.02)(0.1)(0.2)=0.0196$
  • The probability of getting an offer after your 3rd application is $(1-0.02)(1-0.02)(0.1)(0.2)=0.0192$

Thus, $0.02+0.0196+0.0192=0.0588$

I don't think my approach is correct, it doesn't make sense to me that you have a higher probability of getting an offer on your first application than you do on your 2nd or 3rd. I'm stumped as to what the mistake is that I am making.

Best Answer

Let $a = 0.1$ the probability to get an interview and $b = 0.2 = 2a$ the probability to be hired after an interview.

The probability to be hired at a given submission is $ab$.

The probability you are looking for is:

$$p = \underbrace{ab}_{\text{1st sub. hired}} + \underbrace{(1-ab)}_{\text{1st sub. fail}}\cdot\left(\underbrace{ab}_{\text{2nd sub. hired}} + \underbrace{(1-ab)}_{\text{2nd sub. fail}}\cdot\underbrace{ab}_{\text{3rd sub. hired}}\right) =\\ = a^3b^3 - 3a^2b^2 + 3ab = \\ = a^3 (2a)^3 - 3a^2 (2a)^2 + 3a(2a) = \\ = 8 a^6 - 12 a^4 + 6 a^2 = \\ = 8 \cdot 10^{-6} - 12 \cdot 10^{-4} + 6 \cdot 10^{2} = 0.058808.$$

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