Probability of randomly selecting box B given that two red balls were sequentially drawn without replacement

bayes-theoremconditional probabilityprobability

Box A has 3 red and 7 white, and Box B has 8 red and 2 white.

What is the probability that Box B is selected given 2 red balls are drawn? i.e. $$\Pr(\text{ Box B}\mid\text{2 red balls }). $$

I understand selecting Box B randomly = 50% chance (1/2), selecting 1st red ball = 80% chance(8/10), 2nd red ball = 77% chance(7/9), but I don't know how to put it all together and I feel like I'm missing something.

appreciate the help.

Best Answer

Your probability is

$$\mathbb{P}(B|RR)=\frac{\frac{8}{10}\cdot\frac{7}{9}}{\frac{3}{10}\cdot\frac{2}{9}+\frac{8}{10}\cdot\frac{7}{9}}=\frac{56}{62}=\frac{28}{31}$$

as you expected to find

the chance of 50% selecting A or B is irrelevant being the same for the two boxes