Probability of Normal Dice

diceprobabilityproblem solving

An urn has $100$ normal dice, plus $75$ dice whose face numbers are $2, 2, 4, 4, 6, 6,$ and plus $25$ dice whose face numbers are $1, 1, 3, 3, 5, 5$. One die was chosen at random. If I just rolled one $6$ with this die, what is the probability that I chose a normal die?

I have no clue how to go about this problem. Your help would be really appreciated.

Best Answer

You could argue completely with Bayes' theorem, but you can also observe that uniformly picking a die and rolling it once amounts to uniformly picking one of the $ 1200$ faces. You picked a six (out of $250$ sixes). There are $150$ sixes on "even" dice and $100$ sixes on normal dice (plus none on "odd" dice). Hence the probability that your particular six is on a normal die is $\frac{100}{250}$.

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