Probability of hitting the target at least once

logarithmsprobability

If the probability of hitting a target by a shooter, in any shot, is $\frac13$, then the minimum number of independent shots at the target required by him so that the probability of hitting the target at least once is greater than $\frac56$, is : $3/4/5/6?$

$1-(\frac23)^n>\frac56 \implies \frac16>(\frac23)^n$. Want to be able to solve this quickly without long calculations or trying different values of $n$.

$-\ln6>n(\ln2-\ln3)\implies\frac{\ln2+\ln3}{\ln3-\ln2}>n$. In exam, calculator or log tables are not allowed. How to solve this?

Best Answer

Write your inequality $\ \frac{1}{6}>\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^n\ $ as $$ 3^{n-1}>2^{n+1}\ . $$ The highest powers of $2$ and $3$ you need to check to find out which of the alternatives you're given is the correct one are $\ 2^7=128\ $ and $\ 3^5=243\ $, respectively. These are small enough for the check to carried out reasonably quickly without any artificial aids.

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