Probability of first increase in ordering of iid random variables

probabilityprobability distributionsprobability theoryrandom variables

What is the probability that the first $n-1$ terms of iid Unif(0,1) random draws are in decreasing order, but the first $n$ terms are not?
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I know that due to exchangability, $\mathbb{P}(X_{1}<X_{2}<\cdots<X_{n-1})=\frac{1}{n-1!}$. Why can't a similar exchangability argument hold to show that $\mathbb{P}(X_{1}>X_{2}>\cdots>X_{n-1}<X_{n})=\frac{1}{n!}$? My reasoning is that the distribution of $(X_1,X_2,\dots,X_n)$ is symmetric, so no matter which permutation of the random variables exist in the random vector, they will all have the same probability.

Best Answer

Since $P(X_i=X_j)=0$ for every $ i \ne j$, we infer that $$\mathbb{P}(X_{1}>X_{2}>\cdots>X_{n-1}<X_{n})= $$ $$ \mathbb{P}(X_{1}> \cdots>X_{n-1})-\mathbb{P}(X_{1}> \cdots>X_{n-1}>X_{n}) =\frac{1}{(n-1)!}-\frac{1}{n!}=\frac{n-1}{n!} \,.$$

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Another way to reach the same conclusion is to observe that the event $X_{1}>X_{2}>\cdots>X_{n-1}<X_{n}$ represents $n-1$ permutations of the $n$ variables, determined by what is the first $k \in [1,n-1]$ such that $X_n>X_k$.