Probability of a combined event

probability

You own an electronics store and received a unusual shipment of two boxes of batteries. Box 1 contains 1000 batteries and Box 2 contains 2000 batteries. The manufacturer has tested the charge every battery in each box to see if it is either (1) acceptable or (2) unacceptable. They disclose that 90% of batteries in Box 1 and 95% of batteries in Box 2 are acceptable.

A) Suppose a box is given to a customer at random and the customer randomly selects a battery from the box. If that battery is unacceptable, what is the probability that the customer chose Box 1?
B) Suppose that a box is given to the customer at random and they insist on selecting 2 batteries this time. If both of the batteries are unacceptable, what is the probability that the customer chose from Box 1?

Please I care most about how it was solved rather than the final answer.

Best Answer

Following on from the suggestion to use Bayes' Theorem, a verbal description should help in interpreting the formula. Part (A) In words, the probability of it being box $1$ given that the battery selected is unacceptable is the probability of selecting an unacceptable battery from box $1$ divided by the probability of selecting an unacceptable battery from either box.

In Bayes formula form, this looks like......

$P(A|B) = \frac{P(B|A)\cdot P(A)}{P(B)}$

$= \frac{0.1\cdot 0.5}{0.5\cdot 0.1+0.5\cdot 0.05}$

$= \frac{2}{3}$

Part (B) is a repeat except that we are now dealing with the probability of selecting two unacceptable batteries and not one.

$P(A|C) = \frac{P(C|A)\cdot P(A)}{P(C)}$

$$= \frac{0.1\cdot \frac{99}{999}\cdot 0.5}{0.5\cdot 0.1\cdot \frac{99}{999}+0.5\cdot 0.05\cdot \frac{99}{1999}}$$

$$= 0.80$$

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