Probability mass function for the poisson process

poisson distributionpoisson processprobabilitystochastic-processes

For fixed $\lambda>0$ let $(S_k)_{k\geq1}$ be i.i.d. with common distribution $Exp(\lambda)$. Now if $T_k:=S_1+…+S_k$ with $T_0$. the Poisson process with rate $\lambda$ is defined as
$$
N_t:=\max\{k\geq0: T_k\leq t\}
$$

Another thing to keep in mind is that if $T_k=\sum(S_k)_{k\geq1}$ are i.i.d. random variables which are exponentially distributed with $\lambda$, that the sum of those r.v. is Gamma($n,\lambda$) distributed, has the density
$$
f_{X_n}(x)=\lambda e^{-\lambda x}\frac{(\lambda x)^{n-1}}{(n-1)!}1_{x>0}
$$

I need to show that the for the defined $N_t$ it holds that for $t\geq0, N_t \sim Poi(\lambda t)$.

For a fixed, non-negative integer $k$ we have $\{N_t=k\}=\{T_k\leq t <T_{k+1}\}$. That for me is clear. But how to derive from that using the above that:
$$
P(N_t=k)=\int_0^tf_{T_k}P(S_{k+1}>t-s)ds=e^{-\lambda x}\int_0^t\frac{(\lambda s)^{k-1}}{(k-1)!}\lambda ds=\frac{(\lambda t)^{k}}{k!}e^{-\lambda t}
$$

I am struggeling at the first equation allready and would appreciate your help! I have the feeling that in the first equality the formula of total probability is used conditioned on the value $T_k$, but I can't work out how that works…

Best Answer

Use Fubini and independence you will have:

$$P(T_k \leq t <T_k+S_{k+1})=E[1_\left\{T_k \leq t <T_k+S_{k+1} \right\}]=\int_{\mathbb{R}}(\int_{\mathbb{R}}1_\left\{x \leq t <x+y \right\}(x,y)dP_{S_{k+1}}(y))dP_{T_{k}}(x)=\int_{\mathbb{R}}1_{[0,t]}(x)(\int_{\mathbb{R}}1_{\left\{y>t-x \right\}}(y)dP_{S_{k+1}}(y))dP_{T_k}(x)=\int_{0}^tP(S_{k+1}>t-x)f_{T_k}(x)dx$$

You will have the same result as above.

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