Probability is unique

probability

In many problems of probability the requirement is : Find the probability of (something). But a probability is a positive numeric function s.t:

Axiom 1. $P(E)=1$ ,where $E$ is sample space.

Axiom 2. Let $A_1,A_2,\ldots$ be a countable (possibly countably infinite) sequence of pairwise disjoint events. then:
$$ P\left(\bigcup_n A_n\right)= \sum_n P(A_n)$$

But there are many functions, satisfying these axioms, so what does it mean to find the probability of some event? Or is the probability somehow unique?

Best Answer

Good question - no the probability is not unique. It is generally a measure defined on the sample space $\Omega$, which must be equipped with a sigma algebra $\mathcal{F}$. The pair $(\Omega, \mathcal{F})$ is called a measurable space (it the sense that it admits a measure - here, a probability measure).

However, when we ask what is the probability that $X \in A$ (e.g., $P[X\leq 1]$), what we actually measure is the subset of $\Omega$, $X^{-1}(A)$.

Rewind: Let's take it form the beginning: $(\Omega, \mathcal{F})$ is a measurable space. We equip it with some probability measure $P:\mathcal{F} \to [0,1]$ (which satisfies the axioms you mentioned). Let $(E, \mathcal{E})$ be another measurable space - take for example $\mathbb{R}$ with its Borel subsets.

A function $X:\Omega \to E$ is called a random variable if it is measurable, that is, if $X^{-1}(C) \in \mathcal{F}$ whenever $C\in \mathcal{E}$.

The "probability that $X$ is in $A$", denoted by $P[X\in A]$, is a shorthand for

$$ P[X^{-1}(A)] = P[\{\omega \in \Omega : X(\omega) \in A\}]. $$

This explains why we required that $X$ should be measurable: if $X$ is measurable, $\{\omega \in \Omega : X(\omega) \in A\}$ is measurable whenever $A$ is measurable.

The value of this probability depends on the choice of $P$ on $(\Omega, \mathcal{F})$. This is certainly something one needs to clarify. Sometimes probability measures are defined in terms of probability distributions, that is, functions $F_X(x) = P[X\leq x]$. This definition does not allow us to measure the sets of $\mathcal{F}$ directly (but we usually don't care), but permits to probe into $\Omega$ using $X$.

I hope this answers your question to some extent.

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