Probability calculation for two independent uniform random variables

probability theoryuniform distribution

I want to calculate the probability $\mathbb{P}\left( \max \{ U, \frac{1}{2} \} \leq X\right) $ with $U, X \sim $Unif$[0,1]$ and independent. I know that the result is $\frac{3}{8}$, but do not really know how to get there. I tried
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{P}\left( \max \{ U, \frac{1}{2} \} \leq X\right) = \mathbb{P}\left( U \leq X \text{ and } \frac{1}{2} \leq X\right) \overset{(*)}{=} \underbrace{\mathbb{P}\left( U \leq X \right)}_{= \frac{1}{2}} \cdot \underbrace{\mathbb{P}\left( \frac{1}{2} \leq X\right)}_{= \frac{1}{2}} = \frac{1}{4}.
\end{align*}

At (*) I used the Independence of $X$ and $U$. Obviously there must be a mistake at some point. Can anybody tell me how to get to $\frac{3}{8}$? It can't be that hard, but right now I do not know how to do it properly.

Best Answer

Let's first do it geometrically and then see if that leads to an algebraic insight.

Let $X$ and $U$ be plotted on a coordinate plane, with the $X$-value horizontal and the $U$-value vertical. Then $(X,U)$ is a point in the unit square. If $U \le 1/2$, then $\max(U, 1/2) = 1/2$, and we compare $1/2$ against $X$, meaning that in the lower half of the unit square, the set of points $(X,U)$ satisfying the criterion $\max(U, 1/2) \le X$ comprises a square with vertices $(1/2, 0), (1, 0), (1, 1/2), (1/2, 1/2)$, since any $X \in [1/2, 1]$ will be at least as large as $\max(U, 1/2) = 1/2$.

What happens in the upper half of the square? In this case, $\max(U, 1/2) = U$, and we require $X$ to be at least as large as $U$, so this includes all the points on or below the line $U = X$ in this upper half; i.e., it is the triangle with vertices $(1/2, 1/2), (1, 1/2), (1,1)$.

Combined together, these two regions become a trapezoid which is easily seen to have area $3/8$.

How do we use this to reason algebraically? We simply write

$$\begin{align} \Pr[\max(U, 1/2) \le X] &= \Pr[(1/2 \le X) \cap (U \le 1/2)] + \Pr[(U \le X) \cap (U > 1/2)] \\ &= \Pr[1/2 \le X]\Pr[U \le 1/2] + \Pr[1/2 < U \le X] \\ &= (1/2)(1/2) + (1/8) \\ &= 3/8. \end{align}$$

If $\Pr[1/2 < U < X]$ is not obvious, we can always integrate: $$\Pr[1/2 < U < X] = \int_{u=1/2}^1 \int_{x=u}^1 \, dx \, du = \int_{u=1/2}^1 1-u \, du = \left[u - \frac{u^2}{2}\right]_{u=1/2}^1 = \frac{1}{2} - \frac{3}{8} = \frac{1}{8}.$$

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