Polya’s urn scheme

probability

A box has 10 red balls and 5 black balls. A ball is selected from the
box. If the ball is red, it is returned to the box. If the ball is
black, it and 2 additional black balls are added to the box. Find the
probability that a second ball from the box is red? Find the
probability that a second ball from the box is black?

I understand this question has been asked before, but I am having difficulty understanding the process behind it and why my initial process was incorrect. Also, this question can be found in Chapter 1, 21 in Introduction to Probability Theory.

My Process:

$$P(R_2)=P(R_2|R_1)+P(R_2|B_1)$$
$$=\frac{r}{b+r}+\frac{r}{b+r+2}$$
$$=\frac{10}{15}+\frac{10}{17}$$
$$=1.25…$$

This is clearly wrong. When I looked at the example in the text provide, they state
$$P(R_2)=P(R_1\cap R_2)+P(B_1\cap R_2)$$ which is how I eventually got to the correct answer.
They concluded this because they assume $B_1$ and $R_1$ are mutually disjoint events, which I understand because they are the first event in the sequence. But, why was my first idea incorrect?

Best Answer

There are two cases

  1. In first draw ball is red and again it's red , probability to it is $$\frac{r}{r+b}.\frac{r}{r+b}$$

  2. In first draw ball is black and again it's red , probability to it is $$\frac{b}{r+b}.\frac{r}{r+b+2}$$

so required probabilty is $$P(R)= \frac{r}{r+b}.\frac{r}{r+b}+\frac{b}{r+b}.\frac{r}{r+b+2}$$

Similarly

$$P(B)=\frac{r}{r+b}.\frac{b}{r+b}+\frac{b}{r+b}.\frac{b+2}{r+b+2}$$

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