Pólya’s urn question

polya-urn-modelprobability

There are w white balls and b blue balls in a urn. We take one ball, see its color, return it to the urn and add another ball of the same color. Let's call $W_n ≡$ we get a white ball at the n-th extraction and $B_n ≡$ we get a blue ball at the n-th extraction. I have already proven by induction that $P(W_n) = P(W_1)\; \forall \; n \ge 1$ and now I'm trying to calculate $P(W_1 | W_n)$.

I've done the case $n = 2$ and I've obtained $P(W_1 | W_2) = \frac {w+1}{w+b+1}$, but I don't know how to proceed for the general case.

Best Answer

I haven't gone through the math for $\mathbb{P}(W_n) = \mathbb{P}(W_1)$, but assuming it is correct, we have

$$\mathbb{P}(W_1 | W_n) = \mathbb{P}(W_n | W_1)\cdot\frac{\mathbb{P}(W_1)}{\mathbb{P}(W_n)} = \mathbb{P}(W_n | W_1)$$

Now let's use our common sense. Given the event $W_1$ happened, that means that we now have $w + 1$ whites and $b$ blues after the first extraction. Then, we have $(n - 1)$ more extractions to go. Therefore, if we extend our notation of $W_n$ a bit to $W_{n,w,b}$ naturally, then

$$\mathbb{P}(W_n | W_1) = W_{n - 1, w + 1, b} = W_{1, w + 1, b} = \frac{w + 1}{w + b + 1}$$

At least, I believe.

P.S. I am currently procrastinating revising for my probability exam next week, and this is precisely what I am studying! :)

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