Polya urn – Computation of an expectation

conditional-expectationexpected valuepolya-urn-modelprobability

Suppose that at time 0 I have a urn with a red ball and a white ball. At time $n$ I take a random ball with uniform probability and return this ball with one extra ball of the same colour to the urn. Let $R_n$, $W_n$ be the number of red, white balls at time $n$. Then, \begin{align} E[R_{n+1}\mid F_n]=\frac{n+3}{n+2}R_n \end{align} (the expected number of balls at time n+1 knowing the number of ball extracted at time n)

I can't understand how to compute that value.

Best Answer

Hints: First, at the beginning of time $n+1$, there are exactly $n+2$ balls (why?). We then sample a ball: with probability $R_n/(n+2)$, we draw a red ball (why?), in which case $R_{n+1}=R_n+1$, while with probability $(n+2-R_n)/(n+2)$, we draw a white ball, so we are stuck with $R_{n+1}=R_n$. Combine these values and probabilities (how?) to get your answer.

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