[Math] Why must the probability of an event be between 0 and 1

probability

Let me put it in this way:

Define A= Head turned up, B= Tail turned up

If I toss a coin, it is natural to say that the probability of A and B is $P(A)=P(B)=\frac{1}{2}$.

Why we can't assign, let's say, 0.6 to the probability of each events? That is, $P(A)=P(B)=0.6$

We can't do this because $P(A)+P(B)>1$ but why it must be 1?

Is there a fundamental reason that the probability of an event must be some number between $0$ and $1$? Or we adopted this convention that 1 as a scale?

Best Answer

For any event $A$, a certain event $B$, and an impossible event $C$, where $A$, $B$ and $C$ are all independent, we need $A$ and $B$ happening to be as probable as $B$, $B$ and $C$ happening to be as probable as $C$, and $A$ and $C$ happening to be as probable as $C$. Written out with the definition of independence, this means that:

$$P(AB) = P(A)P(B) = P(A)$$ $$P(BC) = P(B)P(C) = P(C)$$ $$P(AC) = P(A)P(C) = P(C)$$

The events $A$ and $C$ are also disjoint ($C$ won't happen whenever $A$ happens because $C$ can't happen), and since we need the probability of either happening to equal the probability of just $A$ happening, we need: $$P(A \cup C) = P(A) + P(C) = P(A)$$

These are all true only if $P(B) = 1$ and $P(C) = 0$. Put differently, in order for independence to distribute through probabilities, we need certainty to correspond with the multiplicative identity 1 and impossibility to correspond with the additive identity 0. Formally, this is true in any probability space where the events form a field.

Edit: better justification for impossibility being 0

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