[Math] We throw a die $8$ times. What is the probability of obtaining exactly two $3$s, three $1$s, three $6$s

probability

We throw a die $8$ times. What is the probability of obtaining exactly two $3$s, three $1$s, three $6$s?

My work:
The sample space $ S:$ "The set of all solutions of throwing the die [eight times]" and $|S|:6^8$

Then the probability of getting two $3$s, three $1$s, three $6$s is $\frac{8}{6^8}$

Is the reasoning correct?

Best Answer

There are ${8 \choose 2}$ ways to place the threes, then ${6 \choose 3}$ ways to place the ones, and then ${3 \choose 3}$ to place the remaining sixes.

All together we can arrange these groups in

$${8\choose 2}\cdot{6\choose3}=\frac{8!}{2!\cdot6!}\cdot\frac{6!}{3!\cdot3!}=\frac{8!}{2!\cdot3!\cdot3!}$$

different ways.

Notice that this is a multinomial distribution which takes the form

$$P(X_1=x_1,...,X_k=x_k)=\frac{n!}{x_1!\cdots x_k!}p_1^{x_1}\cdots p_k^{x_k}$$

Let $X_3,X_1,X_6$ denote the numbers of threes, ones, and sixes observed, respectively. Then

$$P(X_3=2, X_1=3,X_6=3)=\frac{8!}{2!\cdot3!\cdot3!}\left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^8\approx3.334\cdot10^{-4}$$

where we do not have to take into account $X_2=X_4=X_5=0$ since $0!=1$ and $\frac{1}{6}^0=1$

R Simulation:

dice=c(1,2,3,4,5,6)
u = replicate(10^7,sample(dice,8,repl=T))
one=colSums(u==1)
two=colSums(u==2)
three=colSums(u==3)
four=colSums(u==4)
five=colSums(u==5)
six=colSums(u==6)
mean(three==2 & one==3 & six==3)

[1] 0.0003365

which agrees with our result fairly accurately.

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