[Math] Wait time for a bus

probabilitystatistics

For a morning commute let the time spent waiting for a bus =Y. Assume the minimum wait time is 2 min and that is is impossible for the wait time to exceed 14 min.

A)Propose a probability model for the distribution of Y.

B) if the mean is 8 and SD is 2 and it is more likely that the wait time will occur closer to the mean what is an alternative probability model assuming a symmetric distribution

Best Answer

Okay here is my answer. Say that the bus comes every $12$ minutes. Where you arrive on a twelve minute interval can be modeled by a uniform distribution. However the bus at the start of the twelve minute interval (bus 1) can be early/late and the bus at the end of the interval (bus 2) also early or late. Model these with a normal distributions (iid) centered at $0$ with standard deviation $\sigma$. (These are only approximately normal.) Now if bus 1 is late and you're early enough on the interval, you get bus 1. If not, and if you beat bus 2, you will get on bus 2. However, if you arrive at the end of the interval and bus 2 is early, then you will have to wait through another $12$-ish minutes to get on bus 3. You find that you will wait on average longer than $6$ minutes. This is the bus paradox.

(I used to ride the bus a lot. It gives you a lot of time to think.)

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