[Math] Type II error with Poisson Distribution

probability

I am having a lot of trouble figuring out how to go forward with this one, though I feel like it should be pretty easy (it's been a long day).

This is for a homework problem, and it's set up like this:

Poisson distribution

Your null hypothesis is lambda=1.
The alternate hypothesis is lambda=2.

If you observe a value of 3 or greater, you will reject the null hypothesis.

The question: What is the probability of a Type II Error?

My first though was to take the probability of values less than 3, given the alternate hypothesis of lambda=2.

In other words, (e^-2)(1+2+2)

Am I on the right track?

Thanks!

Best Answer

We want to find the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis, given that the alternate hypothesis $\lambda=2$ is true. This is the probability that the value of the test statistic, in this case a Poisson random variable with mean $2$, takes on value $0$, $1$, or $2$. Now we need to make a standard Poisson $\lambda=2$ calculation. You made it correctly.

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