[Math] The proportion of heads after many coin tosses

probability

Probability works not by compensating for imbalances, but by overwhelming them. Suppose that the first 10 tosses of a coin give 10 tails and that tosses after that are exactly half heads and half tails. (Exact balance is unlikely, but the example illustrates how the first 10 outcomes are swapped by later outcomes).

1) What is the proportion of heads after the first 10 tosses?

2) What is the proportion of heads after 100 tosses if half of the last 90 produces heads (45 heads)?

3) What is the proportion of heads after 1000 tosses if half of the last 990 produce heads

4) What is the proportion of heads after 10000 tosses if half of the last 9990 produce heads?

My solution: all answers are 1/2. But my answer is wrong and I don't know why. I thought the proportion of tossing a coin should be 1/2 in any situation because it must be 2 possible, head or tail. Can anyone please help me figure it out? thanks!

Best Answer

The proportion of heads after the first ten tosses is zero because the first ten are all tails. The proportion of heads after the first hundred tosses is $$ {45\over100}=0.45 $$ Similarly for 3 and 4, you get $0.495$ and $0.4995$.

The question is asking you to calculate the numbers rather than say what the probability of heads or tails is.