[Math] the probability that the letter came from LONDON

probability

A letter has come from exclusively LONDON or CLIFTON, but on the postmark only $2$ consecutive letters ''ON'' are found to be visible. What is the probability that the letter came from LONDON?


This is a question of conditional probability. Let $A$ be the event that the letter has come from LONDON. Let $B$ be the event that consecutive letters ''ON'' are found to be visible. $A\cap B$ is the event that the letter has come from LONDON and consecutive letters ''ON'' are visible. We have to find $P(A\mid B)
=\frac{P(A\cap B)}{P(B)}$.

But then i am stuck. Please help me. Thanks.

Best Answer

There is not enough information given to answer the question, since we don't know the prior probabilities of letters arriving from London or from Clifton. A reasonable assumption might be that letters are equally likely to come from any of the people living in those two places. London has a population of roughly $10$ million; the suburb Clifton of Bristol (assuming that that's the Clifton that is meant) has a population of roughly $10{,}000$. Thus the prior probabilities are roughly $0.999$ for arriving from London and $0.001$ for arriving from Clifton.

Regarding the letters on the postmark, again not enough information is given, since we don't know how these letters came to be visible and how likely they are to be from various parts of the words. A reasonable assumption is that a pair of consecutive letters was uniformly randomly selected from all such pairs. Then the probability of a letter from London showing "ON" would be $2/5$, and the probability of a letter from Clifton showing "ON" would be $1/6$.

Under these two assumptions, we can calculate the a posteriori probability of the letter having arrived from London as

$$ P(\text{London}\mid\text{ON})=\frac{P(\text{London}\cap\text{ON})}{P(\text{ON})}=\frac{0.999\cdot\frac25}{0.999\cdot\frac25+0.001\cdot\frac16}\approx0.9996\;. $$

Thus we are now even more certain that the letter must have come from London than before.

If you want to solve this very badly posed problem the way it may have been intended, you may want to use the highly unrealistic prior probabilities $1/2$ instead.