Consider the triangle formed by randomly distributing three points on a circle. What is the probability of the center of the circle be contained within the triangle?
Probability – Probability of Circle’s Center Within a Triangle Formed by Random Points
circlesgeometric-probabilityprobability
Related Solutions
Let $R$ be a convex region of the plane with unit area, and choose $n\ge 3$ points at random from the region. We will derive a general expression for the probability $P_{n}$ that the convex hull of these points contains a particular point $\tau \in R$ (which we will take as the origin of our coordinate system). We can then evaluate that expression for the particular question posed (in which $n=3$, $R$ is an equilateral triangle, and $\tau$ is its center).
Suppose the hull does not contain $\tau$, and assume that $\tau$ is not collinear with any two of the points (this is true with probability 1). Then we can draw a ray from the center point through one of the $n$ points (the "leftmost" point) such that the remaining $n-1$ points are to the right of the ray. (Note that this condition is both necessary and sufficient. Note also that if the convex hull does contain $\tau$, then there is no "leftmost" point.) We can calculate the desired probability by integrating over all such configurations. In particular, take $f(\varphi)$ to be the area of the subregion that lies to the right of the radial ray at angle $\varphi$, and take $r(\varphi)$ to be the distance from $\tau$ to the boundary of $R$ along that ray. Then the probability that a particular point will lie in the angular interval $[\varphi, \varphi+d\varphi]$ is $da = \frac{1}{2}r(\varphi)^2 d\varphi$, and the probability that each of the other $n-1$ points will lie to its right is $f(\varphi)$. Since there are $n$ points to choose as the leftmost, the overall probability of not capturing $\tau$ in the convex hull is $$ 1-P_{n} = n \int f(\varphi)^{n-1} da = n \int_{-\pi}^{\pi} \frac{1}{2} f(\varphi)^{n-1} r(\varphi)^2 d\varphi, $$ We can make a few observations at this point. First, if the region $R$ is symmetric under reflection through $\tau$, then $f(\varphi)$ is identically $1/2$: each radial line splits the region in half. The result then is $$ P_{n} = 1 - \frac{n}{2^{n-1}}, $$ which gives the known result $P_{3} = 1/4$ for polygons with an even number of sides. Second, if the region $R$ instead has bilateral symmetry across the $x$-axis, then $r(\varphi)$ is an even function, and $f(\varphi) = 1/2 + f^{-}(\varphi)$, where $f^{-}$ is an odd function. Then terms in the integral with odd powers of $f^{-}$ must vanish: in particular, we have $$ P_{3} = \frac{1}{4} - 3 \int{{f^{-}(\varphi)}^2 da} = \frac{1}{4} - 3\int_{-\pi}^{\pi}\frac{1}{2}{f^{-}(\varphi)}^2 r(\varphi)^2 d\phi \le \frac{1}{4}, $$ and interestingly the relation $P_{4} = 2P_{3}$ continues to hold.
It remains to evaluate $f^{-}(\varphi)$, $r(\varphi)$, and the resulting integral in the case of an equilateral triangle. The figure above shows an equilateral triangle with vertices at $(-x,0)$ and $(x/2, \pm x\sqrt{3}/2)$. For $\varphi \in [0,\pi/3]$, the function $f^{-}(\varphi)$ is the area of the blue triangle minus the area of the red triangle, $$ f^{-}(\varphi) = \frac{x^2}{8}\tan\varphi - \frac{x^2}{2}\frac{1}{\cot\varphi + \cot\frac{\pi}{6}} = \frac{x^2}{8}\tan\varphi \left(1 - \frac{4}{1 + \sqrt{3}\tan\varphi}\right); $$ and the radius $r(\varphi) = \frac{1}{2}x\sec\varphi$ over the same domain. By symmetry, the full integral is just six times its value over $[0,\pi/3]$: $$ \begin{eqnarray} P_3 &=& \frac{1}{4} - 18\int_{0}^{\pi/3}\frac{x^6}{512}\tan^2\varphi\left(1 - \frac{4}{1 + \sqrt{3}\tan\varphi}\right)^2 \sec^2\varphi d\varphi \\ &=& \frac{1}{4} - \frac{1}{36\sqrt{3}}\int_{0}^{\pi/3}\tan^2\varphi\left(1 - \frac{4}{1 + \sqrt{3}\tan\varphi}\right)^2 \sec^2\varphi d\varphi \\ &=& \frac{1}{4} - \frac{1}{12}\int_{0}^{1} u^2\left(1 - \frac{4}{1+3u}\right)^2 du, \end{eqnarray} $$ where we have used $x = 2/\sqrt{3\sqrt{3}}$ (in order for the triangle to have unit area) and introduced the transformed variable $u = \tan\varphi / \sqrt{3}$ (so $du = (\sec^2\varphi / \sqrt{3}) d\varphi$). The final integral is a straightforward exercise for the reader; the result is $$ P_3 = \frac{1}{4} - \frac{1}{324}\left(57 - 80\ln{2}\right) = \frac{2}{81}\left(3 + 10\ln{2}\right) = 0.2452215..., $$ in agreement with the brute-force and numerical results already given. This result can be generalized easily to the regular $m$-gon for any odd $m$ (changing only the values of some constants), and to the case where $n>3$ (complicating the final integral).
The question is about points on a circle, so that's the one I'm answering here. The triangle is right angled precisely if two of the three points lie on a diameter of the circle. This is Thales' theorem. As already noted, the probability that this occurs is $0$. The triangle is obtuse precisely if all three points lie on the same side of some diagonal of the circle. The probability for that is $\frac{3}{4}$ (assuming a uniform distribution on the circle).
One way of seeing this is to introduce for each vertex $v_k$ a random variable $X_k$ as follows:
$$ X_k = \begin{cases} 1 & \textrm{if the other vertices lie on the half circle starting at } v_k \textrm{ in clockwise direction}\\ 0 & \textrm{otherwise} \end{cases} $$
Then at most one of $X_1, X_2, X_3$ can be equal to one. Therefore
$$ \mathbb{P}(\textrm{triangle is obtuse}) = \mathbb{P}(X_1+X_2+X_3 = 1) = \mathbb{E}(X_1+X_2+X_3) = 3 \mathbb{E}(X_1). $$
The last equality follows from the fact that $X_1, X_2, X_3$ all have the same probability distribution. Now $\mathbb{E}(X_1) = \frac{1}{4}$ since both $v_2$ and $v_3$ have a probability of $\frac{1}{2}$ to lie on the half circle starting at $v_1$.
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Best Answer
The probability is, in fact, $\large\frac14$.
Wherever the first point is chosen, the diameter on which it lies (the diameter being determined by the circle center and the first chosen point) divides the circle into two symmetric semi-circles, so the second and third points (assuming they are distinct) must necessarily be place on opposite halves of the circle.
The line connecting the second and third points must then also lie above the center (with respect to the first point - or below the center, if the first point was on "top"); so if the second point is at a distance $x$ from the first point along the perimeter of the circle (in units of the length of the perimeter), there's a range within length $\frac12-x$ in which to place the third point. Thus, computing the probability gives:
$$2\int_0^{\large\frac12}\left(\frac12-x\right)\,dx\;=\;2\int_0^{\large\frac12}x\,dx\;=\;\frac14$$
where we multiply the integral by $2$ to cover the fact that we can interchange the second and third point.