[Math] The probability of being dealt a royal straight flush (ace, king, queen, jack, and ten of same suit)

probabilityprobability theory

The probability of being dealt a royal straight flush(ace, king, queen, jack, and ten of same suit is about $$1.3 \times10^{-8}$$ Suppose an avid player sees 100 hands per week for 52 weeks for 20 years….

my question doesn't have to do with solving the question. It has to do with the statement of the probability of the royal flush.

Now going off of what I have learned so far I had figured out the probability of a royal straight flush to be $$\frac{\binom{4} {1} }{\binom{52} {5} }$$

So my question is where did they obtain the probability of $$1.3 \times10^{-8}$$ from amd how is it liked to the combinatorial expression? if at all?

edit: I forgot the choose expression in latex if someone could edit it for me…. thanks.

edit 2: Thanks for the helpful responses and providing me assurance that I am. actually competent enough to think about these things. The book I am using is Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis 3rd edition by John Rice

Best Answer

What is your source? The expression $\frac{4}{\binom{52}{5}}$ is correct (you don't need $\binom{4}{1}$ at the top; one easily counts the hands directly with no calculation!).

I suspect your source is wrong. E.g.

https://books.google.com/books?id=opjqt3SbE9MC&pg=PA81&dq=%22royal+flush%22+odds&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjF9vqXzIbTAhWh1IMKHXSGA3EQ6AEIIDAB#v=onepage&q=%22royal%20flush%22%20odds&f=false

gives "odds of getting any one of these royal flushes are 2,598,956 to 4" and since $\binom{52}{5} = 2,598,960$, but "odds" are given as fail to successes or successes to fails, so this is a probability of $\frac{4}{2598956 + 4} = \frac{4}{2598960} = \frac{4}{\binom{52}{5}}$.

Other sources give the same result, and it's the only one that makes mathematical sense.