[Math] The Price is Right optimal play

expectationgame theoryprobability

The following situation happened on the Price is Right and I was curious about the optimal response.
The rules are:
A contestant rolls a wheel with 5 cent increments from 5 – 100 (20 numbers total). A contestant can choose to spin the wheel once and accept the number the wheel landed on (stay) or spin again and have this new number added to the previous number. If the contestant has a number that is over 100 cents they automatically lose. The object of the game is to roll the highest number out of a set of contestants.

GirlA rolled once and rolled 60 cents. GirlA knows GirlB will play afterwards. Should GirlA roll again? At what number is the expected value neutral / what range of numbers should GirlA stay on? If there is more than one player behind, what range of numbers is best to stay on?

Best Answer

I'll look at the two player version, although IIRC the TV show was for three players. Also, instead of the values being 5 to 100 in steps of 5, WLOG just consider the wheel to be 1 to 20.

Well I believe the first thing to figure out is, if player one retires with value $x$, what is probably that player two wins? He can get either more than $x$ on his first roll, or with two rolls:

  • hit $y$ on the first roll
  • hit more than $x - y$ but no more than $20 - y$ on the second roll

The chance of second player Winning in one roll is then

$$\sum_{y=x+1}^{20}\frac{1}{20} = \frac{20 - x}{20}$$

and winning in two rolls is

$$\sum_{y=1}^x\overbrace{\frac{1}{20}}^\text{Chance of hitting y} \times \underbrace{\sum_{z=x - y + 1}^{20-y}\frac{1}{20}}_\text{Chance of hitting a winning second roll}$$

$$=\frac{1}{20\times 20}\sum_{y=1}^x \sum_{z=x - y + 1}^{20-y} 1$$

$$=\frac{1}{20\times 20}\sum_{y=1}^x 20 - x$$

$$=\frac{20x - x^2}{20\times 20}$$

So if player 1 retires with $x$, then the chance that player two wins is $p_2(x) = \frac{20 - x}{20} + \frac{20x - x^2}{20\times 20} = \boxed{1 - \frac{x^2}{400}}$

Ok so now we have to answer the second part: if you are player 1, and you roll $x$, should you reroll? For this you calculate the chance of winning if you reroll, and the chance of winning if you won't reroll, and choose which one is larger.

If you reroll, in order to win:

  • roll value $z$ between $1$ and $20 - x$ inclusive
  • player 2 must lose with player 1 retiring on $x + z$

$$\begin{align} \text{reroll win chance} &= \sum_{z = 1}^{20 - x} \frac{1}{20} (1 - p_2(x + z)) \\ &= \frac{1}{20} \sum_{z = 1}^{20 - x} \frac{(x+z)^2}{400} \\ &= \frac{1}{20^3} \sum_{z = 1}^{20 - x} x^2+2xz +z^2 \\ &= \frac{1}{20^3} \left((20-x)x^2+2x\frac{(20 - x)^2 + (20 - x)}{2} +\frac{(20-x)((20-x)+1)(2(20-x)+1)}{6} \right)\\ &= \frac{17220 - x - 3x^2 -2x^3}{48000} \end{align}$$

If you don't reroll, the chance of your winning is $1 - p_2(x) =\frac{x^2}{400}$.

So summarized:

$$ \newcommand{\cent}{{\mathrm{c}\mkern-6.5mu{\mid}}} \begin{array} {|c|c|c|} \text{Player 1 first roll} & \text{Winning chance if reroll} & \text{Winning chance if stay} \\ 5 \cent & 0.358625 & 0.0025 \\ 10 \cent & 0.358125& 0.01 \\ 15 \cent & 0.357 & 0.0225 \\ 20 \cent & 0.355 & 0.04 \\ 25 \cent & 0.351875& 0.0625 \\ 30 \cent & 0.347375& 0.09 \\ 35 \cent & 0.34125 & 0.1225 \\ 40 \cent & 0.33325 & 0.16 \\ 45 \cent & 0.323125& 0.2025 \\ 50 \cent & 0.310625& 0.25 \\ \hline 55 \cent & 0.2955 & 0.3025 \\ 60 \cent & 0.2775 & 0.36 \\ 65 \cent & 0.256375& 0.4225 \\ 70 \cent & 0.231875& 0.49 \\ \hline 75 \cent & 0.20375 & 0.5625 \\ 80 \cent & 0.17175 & 0.64 \\ 85 \cent & 0.135625& 0.7225 \\ 90 \cent & 0.095125& 0.81 \\ 95 \cent & 0.05 & 0.9025 \\ 100 \cent & 0 & 1 \end{array}$$

So player 1 should reroll if he gets anything less than $x=11$ or 55 cents. But unless he gets at least 75 cents, he's probably going to lose anyway. That's a pretty unfair game, player 1 only has a ${6 \over 20}$ chance of winning overall.

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