[Math] The largest of $N$ random numbers over a uniform distribution

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So I read somewhere than if you have $N$ numbers picked independently from a uniform distribution, say $[0,1]$, the greatest number has an expected value of $\frac{N}{N+1}$. So if you have 2 numbers the greatest has expected value $2/3$. The smallest has expected value of $1/3$. The expected values are uniformly distributed. This makes sense, but is there a clear/intuitive proof of this? Thanks 🙂

Best Answer

Let $U_1 , ... , U_N$ be the $N$ random variables from the uniform distribution. Let $X$ be their maximum. We will in fact compute the distribution of $X$, that is

$$F(t):= \mathbb P(X < t) .$$

The maximum of $N$ numbers is less than $t$ if and only if all $N$ of them are less than $t$. Therefore

$$\mathbb P(X < t) = \mathbb P(U_1 < t , ... , U_N < t).$$

Since the $U_j$'s are independent, this is the same as

$$\mathbb P(U_1 < t) ... \mathbb P(U_N < t).$$

If $t \in [0,1]$, then since $U_j$'s are uniformly distributed we get

$$F(t) = t...t = t^N.$$

Hence the density of $X$ is $F'(t) = N t^{N-1}$ on $[0,1]$. So, the mean of $X$ is

$$\int_0^1 t\cdot Nt^{n-1} dt = \frac{N}{N+1}.$$

EDIT: The general case of the expectation of the $k$th largest of $N$ random variables follows from a similar argument. Here one uses that if $Y$ is the $k$th largest of $N$ independent random variables, then $Y$ is less than $t$ if and only if $k$ of the random variables are less than $t$ and $N-k$ are greater than or equal to $t$ (and there are $N$ choose $k$ ways for this to happen).

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