[Math] Stopped martingale is a martingale

martingalesprobability theorystochastic-processes

Let $M$ be a non-negative martingale starting at a>0 and consider a stopping time $$T=\inf\{t\colon M_t \geqslant K\}. K>a$$ We also assume that the martingale will reach $K$ in finite time almost surely. We know that $E[M_{t\land T}]=E[M_0]=0$, because the stopped martingale is a martingale. Further, $E[\mid M_{t\land T} \mid]$ is bounded from above uniformly by $K$, which allows me to apply the Dominated convergence theorem:
$$E[M_T]=\lim_{t \rightarrow \infty}E[M_{T \land t}]=E[M_0]=0.$$ However, we know that $E[M_T]=K\neq 0$ by the very definition of $T$.

What went wrong with the above argumentation?

Best Answer

The absolute value of this martingale is actually not necessarily uniformly bounded; think of a 1-D simple random walk starting from 0. Under your stopping time, it could go all the way to negative infinity without being stopped.

Edit: After reading your comment that it is non-negative, it seems your assumptions themselves are contradictory to begin with. The only non-negative martingale starting from 0 can be, well, just 0. (i.e. $X_n = 0$ a.s.). Otherwise, you cannot have $\mathbb{E}X_n = 0$ if $X_n \geq 0$. As such, you are never going to reach K for K > 0.

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