[Math] Statistical Significance Dice Probability

diceprobabilitystatistics

I think I just need to be pushed to the right formula or algorithm… Imagine you've got a "real" dice which is not an optimal one. And you want to know the confidence intervals for each result. So you rolled the dice a couple of times and get the following absolute probabilities as result:

#eyes #occurrences
------------------
1     10
2     11
3     24
4     13
5     14
6     11

You actually want to know weather e.g. this 24 times 3 eyes is just a random result or weather it's really more probable. If so, how much more probable is it (for sure)? So I would like to calculate a 99%-confidence interval for the probabilities.

How to calculate this? I probably know this from statistics in university, but just forgot it… so you don't need to go to much into detail. Just need the right formula/algorithm to look for…

Thanks for your help.

— edit —
Just to make clear, why I do not just lookup "Confidence Interval" at wikipedia. I would know how to calculate everything if there would be only two cases (e.g. like a coin… 0 and 1). Then I would be able to apply the formula, but I just didn't use such statistics for some years now and just don't see the solution how to reduce the problem.
I just think about taking the result in question (e.g. 3 eyes) as "p" and all other results as "\not p"; does that work?

Best Answer

The most common way to do this is to use binomial proportion confidence interval. Let $p$ be the probability that the dice shows 3. This probability is not known but you did an experiment where $24$ out of $83$ trials is 3. Now, your estimated $p$, i.e. $\hat{p}$, is $24/83 = 0.2892$. To get the 95% interval for this estimate, the formula is: $z_{1-\alpha/2}\sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}}$, where $\alpha=5\%$ is the error level, $z_x$ is the $x$ percentile of the standard normal distribution. For $\alpha=5\%$, $z_{1-\alpha/2}=1.96$. And $n$ is the number of trials.

Check this page on wikipedia for reference.

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